Malcolm Beith

Proceso magazine has a piece this week by journalist Anabel Hernandez, the author of a new drug book, “Los Senores del Narco.”

Hernandez has done several years of reporting on this, and done a fair amount of document investigation pertaining to Chapo. I’m excited to read her book, although my guess is that it will contain much that many of us already know. (Full disclosure, my book does the same.)

But a few bits of the excerpt in Proceso are enlightening (link in title of post). For instance, Hernandez recounts a meeting in early 2008, in which an unnamed general over the age of 65 met with Chapo on orders of Los Pinos, to discuss a pact. The general allegedly had been a close confidant of the late Juan Camilo Mourino since 2007.

There have been reports of a meeting between Chapo and local officials before. These reports also had it taking place in 2008, but I’ve never read about a Los Pinos/military link. The meeting allegedly took place in the hills of Durango, according to previous reports.

The revelations about Mourino are bound to cause a stir in Mexico. First off, he’s dead – no way to issue an impassioned denial. Second, Mourino was one of Calderon’s top aides and friends. If he ordered any pact, then Calderon would most likely have been complicit.

I don’t buy any of it, personally. First off, I genuinely believe Calderon is trying to fight this war, and that includes taking down the Sinaloa cartel. Second, to send a high-ranking general to meet face-to-face with Chapo would be akin to the White House sending Gen. Petraeus to have a fireside chat with Osama bin Laden.

I know that generals have been linked to the narcos in the past, and I know they’ve met with them before. But for Los Pinos to send their man to meet with the enemy to discuss a pact? I just can’t see it happening, sorry.

I’ve just been reading one of the more “sensational” Wikileaks cables from Mexico, one of which was written by US Charge D’Affairs John Feeley. I’ve met Feely, and he seemed quite a positive/optimistic guy, so some of this does come across as quite dire. But the headlines (“Mexico is losing drug war, US says” for example) are a bit overblown.
A sampling of one of Feeley’s cables (my comments are in all capitals):

Calderon has aggressively attacked Mexico’s drug trafficking organizations but has struggled with an unwieldy and uncoordinated interagency and spiraling rates of violence that have made him vulnerable to criticism that his anti-crime strategy has failed. Indeed, the GOM’s [Government of Mexico's] inability to halt the escalating numbers of narco-related homicides in places like Ciudad Juarez and elsewhere – the nationwide total topped 7,700 in 2009 – has become one of Calderon’s principal political liabilities as the general public has grown more concerned about citizen security.
ALL TRUE, VERY ACCURATE. I LIKE HIS FRANKNESS ABOUT ‘INABILITY’ TO HALT VIOLENCE.

Mexican security institutions are often locked in a zero-sum competition in which one agency’s success is viewed as another’s failure, information is closely guarded, and joint operations are all but unheard of.
THIS IS OF VITAL IMPORTANCE IN MEXICO RIGHT NOW. HERE’S A QUOTE FROM A GENERAL IN MY BOOK ABOUT INTELLIGENCE SHARING: ‘EVERY TIME WE FIND OR DO SOMETHING, A SUPERVISOR COMES TO SUPERVISE THE SUPERVISOR WHO HAS BEEN SENT TO SUPERVISE US… THE NARCOS KNOW RIGHT AWAY WHEN WE FIND SOMETHING.”

Official corruption is widespread, leading to a compartmentalized siege mentality among “clean” law enforcement leaders and their lieutenants.
THE USE OF QUOTATION MARKS AROUND CLEAN IS OMINOUS. DOUBTS OVER THE CLEANLINESS OF APPARENTLY CLEAN COPS CONTINUE. THE DEA IS EVEN KEEPING CLOSE TABS ON GARCIA LUNA, I”VE BEEN TOLD. THAT IS SERIOUS CAUSE FOR CONCERN.

The military was not trained to patrol the streets or carry out law enforcement operations.
FINALLY, SOMEONE ADMITS THIS ON THE RECORD. AS A SOURCE OF MINE ONCE CONFIDED: “THESE GUYS JUST KICK DOWN DOORS AND MOVE ON TO THE NEXT HOUSE.”

Below the surface of military professionalism, there is also considerable tension between SEDENA and SEMAR. SEDENA has come to be seen slow and risk averse even where it should succeed.
TRUE. BUT NOT NOTED IS THAT THE TENSION MAINLY SPRINGS FROM THE FACT THAT SEMAR IS SEEN AS LESS CORRUPTIBLE, BECAUSE IT IS NOT AS IMMERSED IN ANTI-DRUG OPS, AND THEREFORE LESS FREQUENTLY EXPOSED TO NARCOS AND THEIR INFLUENCE.

What SEDENA, and to a lesser extent SEMAR, need most is a comprehensive, interactive discussion that will encourage them to look holistically at culture, training and doctrine in a way that will support modernization and allow them to address a wider range of military missions.
THIS LINE IS ABSOLUTE HOKEY BULLSHIT. HOLISTICALLY? THIS LINE REVEALS TO ME HOW LITTLE THE STATE DEPT ACTUALLY KNOWS ABOUT HOW THE MILITARY AND SEMAR ACTUALLY OPERATE. THEY”RE PRESCRIBING RHETORICALLY-NICE REMEDIES INSTEAD.

We are having some success in influencing the GOM to transition the military to secondary support functions in Juarez. But in the near term, there is no escaping that the military will play a role in public security.
GOOD NEWS. JUAREZ IS NOT READY FOR THE MILITARY TO LEAVE, LIKE IT OR NOT.

So, a pretty interesting look at how the Embassy sees the situation in Mexico. But it doesn’t exactly say that the Mexican government is losing, does it? And in fact, nowhere in the cable does Feeley even call it a war. Which I believe is quite interesting too.

There are some rumours floating around that Chapo was captured in Colima on Monday and transferred to Mexico City. A US source says it’s not true; I also would find it hard to believe that Calderon wouldn’t have mentioned it in his speech today.

Unless they’re awaiting DNA test confirmation, of course.

Incidentally, the government also released numbers on arrests since December 2006: 24 percent of those arrested have been from the Pacific cartel (Sinaloa), 28 percent from Gulf-Zetas, 16 percent were Beltran Leyva, 4 percent from La Familia, 12 percent Tijuana.

That’s the exact same percentage of Sinaloa cartel members arrested that the administration released around April. The percentage has remained exactly the same over the course of 8 months? Hmm…

AP has a very good story about the drug war and the futility of it all. Aside from the fact that David Gaddis’ name is spelled wrong, it’s a very accurate piece (Link in title of post).

The best part, for those who have wondered about all these “cells” and “operatives” being caught regularly in the US:

Otis Rich, a 34-year-old career criminal from Baltimore, Md., was arrested after he was connected, via cell phone calls, to another Baltimore cocaine dealer, who had his product shipped from an Arizona trafficker, who got his product from Mexico.

When asked about the Sinaloa cartel, Rich said, “Sina-who? I don’t know anything about them guys.” He’s serving 15 years in federal prison in Atlanta for conspiracy to distribute cocaine.

Since writing my book and basically wrapping up my reporting on the drug war, I’ve been doing some reflecting on what I witnessed and have tried to understand.

“Democracy cannot endure if the roots of its system have rotted,” Alejandro Junco de la Vega, chairman and chief executive of Mexico’s Grupo Reforma, said at a summit on violence against journalists today.

Indeed. Over the past three years, I’ve encountered some of those rotten elements. Sometimes I’ve sympathized with those involved. After one visit to the prison in Culiacan and talking to low-level narcos, I found myself quite saddened by their plight. One inmate I had talked to was clearly intent on making a better life for himself once outside; but deep inside, he knew he wouldn’t have a hope in hell. You could tell by the look on his face, the anguish he expressed as he talked of going straight, of betraying his drug bosses, of the reality of his chances. He knew he wouldn’t be able to do the right thing; he had no real choice in the matter.

I witnessed a similar sentiment from a cop in Juarez. We were talking in a near whisper in the police station (which at the time was controlled by the army) and he mentioned how he had worked for the narcos. He would again once the army was gone, he said. He looked at me without expression. He had no choice, his fate was chosen. They know where my family lives and kids go to school, he whispered. He knew on which side he would end up, and he had just as little real choice as the narcos I had talked to in prison.

I’ve talked to dozens of Mexican officials in the past few years, and most of them accept the reality of the game they’re pawns in. Some are really good cops, whose stories I believe. Others are not, but they are controlled by powers far stronger than they. Most often, their choice is money or death. I can sympathize with their plight, even though I can’t condone it.

Then there are the officials who act in a blinding state of total hypocrisy. The Noe Ramirez’s of this world, who pledge to crack down on drug trafficking and then are found to have taken $450,000 from the narcos themselves. I simply don’t understand the level of hypocrisy in the brains of these sorts of people. I’m no saint or preacher myself, but these guys purport to be exactly that, crusaders for justice. And then they work with the narcos? It’s beyond wrong. It’s not the average guy breaking his own rules in a moment of weakness or temptation, it’s the powerful, respected crusader breaking everything he stands for.

And they exist everywhere, not just Mexico.

They range from the small – U.S. Customs and Border Protection Officer Michael Gilliland, for instance, knowingly waved cars full of illegal aliens through his border entry point – to the bigger – customs man Richard Padilla Cramer, who pleaded guilty on trafficking and corruption charges but later cut a deal for obstruction of justice – to the top dogs…

I recently had the opportunity to appear on CNN International in New York, and while getting prepared beforehand, found myself sitting next to Eliot Spitzer, the former governor of New York and attorney general famous for fighting organized crime. Oh, and he’s also the guy who solicited a prostitute from a ring and took her across state lines, breaking a law he had so fervently sought to enforce.

We had a quick chat about Mexico, and organized crime there. I listened to his opinions, because, well, he does know a lot about organized crime and he’s an extremely sharp guy. But throughout the chat I felt myself moving away from him, shifting uneasily. I couldn’t understand this man. He was a crusader, a good guy, and had a moment of weakness. I get that. We all have moments of weakness. But most of us don’t break every rule we stand for when having them. Most of us get drunk, or do something else that is wrong or stupid. People like Eliot Spitzer are not just “the average guy,” they’re supposed to be the man fighting against the bad things so that the weaknesses of “the guy” are not exploited in life.

Just my thoughts…it irks me sometimes.

Well, that didn’t take long, did it. Tijuana’s tough, no nonsense police chief Julian Leyzaola has been replaced by the mayor-elect. It was to be expected – it’s happened with previous cops in Tijuana who have made headway, and Leyzaola said himself he thought he’d be removed. (Story in title of post)
One silver lining in all of this: Leyzaola’s deputy will take over, and he was recommended for the job by Leyzaola himself. Whether allegations of brutality, torture and the like continue remains to be seen.

Time magazine’s Ioan Grillo has a very good piece about the drug war’s ‘lost generation’ (link in title of the post). This is a timely and important piece, because it helps explain that the drug war is about much more than just drugs.

Grillo writes: “At the heart of the problem is youth unemployment, which leads many young people to turn to organized crime for career opportunities. Mexican media talk about a new category known as los ni nis or “neither nors” — young people who neither work nor study. There is a heated debate here about how many ni nis there are. Mexico’s National University claims there are several million, although the government retorts that there are only a few hundred thousand.”

Indeed, ever since I started looking at the drug war I’ve been increasingly curious about the societal war going on. Forget about the Chapos, the hitmen and the bloodshed, and look at what’s going on in society. On one front, you have a generational battle: the older Mexican generation was one which ushered in democracy 10 years ago, which founded the PRD in 1988, which is pushing for education reform, which is part of a struggling-but-growing middle class. They’re fighting to better their future, to get their kids in line, to get their kids to believe in their own future and to get those kids to study and stay out of trouble. Generation Y may be a handful in the workplace in the United States, but in Mexico, the concern is that they’re turning into the next narco-generation.

Constantly lost in the mix in coverage of the drug war is just how dire the education system in Mexico is. With their teachers constantly on strike (not to mention woefully underqualified, by many counts), these kids are barely getting any education. Add to that the tragic fact that many kids believe they know where an education will get them (it’s all about connections, not degrees, after all) and you have the potential for a completely lost, apathetic generation of Mexican kids. A lost generation that unsurprisingly is turning to the drug bosses.

Calderon promised massive job creation, that hasn’t really happened in part because of the economic crisis (I understand the government is doing a decent job of creating them this year); his administration really needs to make education a priority for the rest of his term. No more of these teacher’s strikes, please. If the teachers won’t go to school, how can anyone expect the kids to?

Above is a link to an interview I did with Patrick Corcoran, of ganchoblog fame. I’m increasingly liking the blog video format; there’s something about it that allows interviews like this (with a journalist, rather than some celeb or whatnot) to be more informal and therefore, viewer-friendly.

A US source confirms that tony tormenta, osiel cardenas guillen’s brother, has been killed. Next stop: el lazca.

Sorry it’s been a while since I blogged, I’ve been busy with other projects. AP has an interesting story on the narco-church connections (link in title of post). The recent admissions by the archdiocese spokesman are refreshing; in the past the Church in Mexico has been more prone to saying stupid things like: “The mayor of Mexico City is worse for the country than the narcos.”